Elkhart, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

329
FXUS63 KIWX 251726
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
126 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild and dry this weekend with highs from around 65 to 70.

- Rain and thunderstorms late Monday into Monday night. All
  severe weather hazards possible.

- Cooler Wednesday through Saturday with highs close to 60
  degrees. Frost possible by Friday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Cooler and somewhat drier air was spreading into Indiana from
the northwest. An area of fog was dense in spots had formed in
a relatively narrow boundary behind the clearing skies and where
winds had become light over northern Indiana. The fog is likely
to persist past daybreak until about mid morning when the
relatively shallow radiation inversion mixes out. An upper level
ridge will build north across the Ohio River Valley in response
to upstream energy amplifying an upstream trof. This upper level
ridge will help temperatures rise much above north into the 70s
reaching near 80 degrees in areas south of Highway 30.

An active pattern will unfold late Monday into into Monday night
as the upper level ridge weakens and as a strong upper level
trof approaches the forecast area. A band of strong mid level
winds reaching 70 kts at 700 mb will provide a setting for the
potential for severe thunderstorms, especially west of Highway
31. BUFKIT parameters indicate max CAPE of 777 J/Kg at Ft Wayne.
Precipitable water values reach 1.57 max Monday evening. A study
by Lower Mississippi RFC (Sept 2015) indicated these values
were in the 99th percentile for northern Indiana and northwest
Ohio during the month of April. These high values indicate
precipitation rates could easily top 3"/hr.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms should end late Tuesday night
followed by clearing skies and much cooler weather. There is
frost potential Thursday night through Saturday night as
temperatures dip into the mid and upper 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 123 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

With ridging remaining across the area post-cold front from
yesterday, the area is set to be affected by forming low level
inversions overnight. Given low level moisture from recent rain,
and the combination of times of fog and stratus across the area
last night, we`ll have to watch out for stratus/fog formation
again tonight. With high pressure moving southeastward, north of
the area, east winds take hold late tonight. This would tend to
indicate that the area to watch will be in the I-69 corridor to
start. At this point, aviation guidance is just taking MVFR CIGs
to SBN so confidence is low on whether or not they have some
time in MVFR CIGs. NAM bufkit soundings appear to keep fog out
of both areas with FWA never decoupling. This would make stratus
more possible and that seems to be what aviation guidance
indicates. There`s more confidence in status at FWA and think
MVFR is a good place to start with this issuance. It is possible
we end up with fuel alternate and that the time frame of these
MVFR CIGs is slightly adjusted so confidence in this is
relatively low.

As mentioned before, the eastward movement of high pressure to our
north allows winds to veer from northerly to easterly overnight.
Initial 10 kt sustained winds lighten up overnight. While 10 kt
sustained winds are possible on Sunday, gusts struggle to reach 25
kts.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Roller