Elkhart, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

045
FXUS63 KIWX 220437
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1137 PM EST Sat Dec 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake effect flurries taper off this evening.

- A wintry mix including freezing rain is possible (40% chance)
Monday  morning near the southern Michigan state line.

- Sharply warmer with chances for rain late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM EST Sat Dec 21 2024

A progressive jet stream in the days ahead provides intermittent
precipitation chances followed by a notable warm up by week`s end.

Lake effect flurries continue to come and go at KIWX, less
impressive than earlier this morning when flakes were rather large
for a time. Forecast soundings continue to depict a decreasing
moisture column through the remainder of the day which will
generally limit lake effect to only flurries. Low-level flow backs
sharply to become westerly early tonight which will further diminish
the lake effect machine. Very cold tonight outside of lake effect
clouds. Hillsdale reached 14 degrees this morning, thus singles-
digits are favored there tonight with the coldest 850-mb
temperatures over our area tonight before moderating. Looks for
highs closer to freezing Sunday with a mix of sun and clouds.

A challenging forecast is in store for Monday as a low streaks
through Michigan. The latest guidance has trended southward with the
precipitation shield Monday morning which presents the concern for
freezing rain or drizzle along the southern Michigan state line.
Confidence is low, however, due to preexisting dry air. In contrast,
ample lift through such a shallow moisture layer could set the stage
for freezing drizzle which could bring greater travel impacts
depending on duration. In the north, forecast soundings do depict a
change over to snow as cooler air in the wake of the low filters in
while southern areas are favored for rain. With an absence of high
resolution guidance (soundings) at this time scale, the weather
grids Monday morning are somewhat broad.

Brief ridging occurs in the wake of the Michigan low with improving
moisture transport from the Gulf ahead of a developing Southern
Plains low. Rain is forecast to reach the forecast area on
Wednesday, though there will be some competition with high pressure
stationed over Pennsylvania. High temperatures should reach well
into the 40s this day, thus rain appears to be the primary
precipitation type.

Additional rounds of rain are expected by the end of the week amid
active southwest flow spilling into the Midwest. High temperatures
are favored to breach 50 degrees for most areas by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1137 PM EST Sat Dec 21 2024

Broad sfc ridging through the lakes/wrn OH valley will slowly
retreat ewd this period ahead of nrn stream disturbance digging sewd
into nrn lower MI by late Mon. Well established lower bound VFR
based lake cloud plume early this morning will break up/dissipate
after sunrise timed with shifting ridge axis and backing to swrly
low level flow.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...T